Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs Frost 56.4% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 84.8%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 59.2%
Neutral zone
Frost 61.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Cirelli
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Cirelli
Frost
Last 9: Cirelli 5-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
2
Cirelli
Frost
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
1
Cirelli
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
56.0% (755)
-5.9%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
60.1% (173)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
88.9% (9)
-52.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +52.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Cirelli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Cirelli shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Frost
Home
53.0% (470)
57.3% (497)
Away
45.0% (509)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Cirelli
Frost
P1
50.6%
60.2%
P2
49.2%
56.0%
P3
47.2%
54.8%
OT
30.8%
63.6%
Final 5 min
52.8%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 02:22 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:13 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 14:13 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 08:25 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 18:56 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 12:05 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |