Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.8% vs 48.5%). Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs Dowd 48.6% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 75.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 76.3%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 53.7%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Cirelli
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Cirelli
Dowd
Last 6: Cirelli 3-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Cirelli
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Cirelli
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
51.0% (671)
-0.9%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
0.0% (2)
+68.9%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
41.5% (224)
-4.8%
On power play, Cirelli has a +68.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Cirelli is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Cirelli shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Dowd
Home
53.0% (470)
48.2% (471)
Away
45.0% (509)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Cirelli
Dowd
P1
50.6%
48.3%
P2
49.2%
46.8%
P3
47.2%
51.0%
OT
30.8%
30.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 17:18 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 12:30 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 13:47 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |