Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Dowd 50.7% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 17-8 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Cirelli 77.2%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 64.8%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 53.4%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 66.2%
66.2%
33.8%
Cirelli
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
17
(25 meetings)
8
17
Cirelli
Dowd
Last 10: Cirelli 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
6
5
Cirelli
Dowd
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
5
Cirelli
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
7
Cirelli
Dowd
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (5,739)
52.3% (6,036)
-2.6%
Power Play
56.9% (578)
56.1% (164)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (1,209)
44.1% (1,638)
-0.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Cirelli is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (2,874).
Cirelli shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Dowd
Home
49.6% (3,838)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
49.1% (3,688)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Cirelli
Dowd
P1
49.9%
51.5%
P2
48.7%
50.4%
P3
49.3%
50.3%
OT
51.1%
45.9%
Final 5 min
50.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 17:18 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 12:30 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 13:47 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 14:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 09:55 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 10:30 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 19:45 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 16:16 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 03:13 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 3 | 09:00 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 1 | 19:37 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 14:26 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 05:50 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 2 | 10:10 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |