Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs Zacha 51.8% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 51.6%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 50.1%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 51.8%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Cirelli
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Cirelli
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Cirelli
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
53.0% (700)
-2.9%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
54.1% (109)
+14.8%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
39.2% (74)
-2.5%
On power play, Cirelli has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Cirelli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Cirelli shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Zacha
Home
53.0% (470)
51.6% (438)
Away
45.0% (509)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Cirelli
Zacha
P1
50.6%
57.0%
P2
49.2%
48.9%
P3
47.2%
50.5%
OT
30.8%
42.1%
Final 5 min
52.8%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 18:16 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |