Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Cirelli 50.6%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 64.2%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 58.5%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Last 10: Cirelli 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Cirelli
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
3
Cirelli
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Cirelli
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
55.7% (856)
-5.6%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
57.5% (233)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
50.0% (144)
-13.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cirelli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Cirelli shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Cirelli
O'Reilly
Home
53.0% (470)
55.5% (616)
Away
45.0% (509)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Cirelli
O'Reilly
P1
50.6%
58.1%
P2
49.2%
54.9%
P3
47.2%
53.9%
OT
30.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 02:13 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 02:02 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 18:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 17:23 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 07:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 17:54 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 16:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 15:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 19:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 01:14 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:44 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:30 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |