Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Aho 53.8% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 53.5%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 83.0%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 72.9%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 64.6%
64.6%
35.4%
Cirelli
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Cirelli
Aho
Last 7: Cirelli 2-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
2
Cirelli
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Cirelli
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (709)
51.2% (785)
-0.3%
Power Play
43.4% (76)
63.8% (213)
-20.4%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (150)
57.9% (57)
-13.9%
On power play, Aho has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Cirelli is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Cirelli shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Aho
Home
50.6% (494)
54.9% (548)
Away
47.6% (441)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Cirelli
Aho
P1
52.3%
52.8%
P2
45.4%
58.9%
P3
49.5%
50.6%
OT
62.5%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.2%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 05:33 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 17:27 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 12:11 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 19:42 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 11:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 02:51 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |