Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs Aho 50.5% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 81.4%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 51.4%
Neutral zone
Aho 63.6%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 69.3%
30.7%
69.3%
Cirelli
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Cirelli
Aho
Last 10: Cirelli 7-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
2
Cirelli
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
3
Cirelli
Aho
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
50.5% (878)
-0.4%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
53.5% (144)
+15.4%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
44.3% (61)
-7.6%
On power play, Cirelli has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Cirelli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Cirelli shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Aho
Home
53.0% (470)
53.8% (571)
Away
45.0% (509)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Cirelli
Aho
P1
50.6%
49.0%
P2
49.2%
51.7%
P3
47.2%
50.3%
OT
30.8%
58.8%
Final 5 min
52.8%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 10:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:10 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:38 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 02:47 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:19 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:44 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:30 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:27 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |