Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs Thompson 45.2% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 54.2%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 68.3%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 57.7%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Cirelli
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Cirelli
Thompson
Last 5: Cirelli 3-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Cirelli
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
44.6% (661)
+5.5%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
48.4% (95)
+20.5%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
33.3% (33)
+3.4%
On power play, Cirelli has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Cirelli is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Cirelli shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Thompson
Home
53.0% (470)
45.7% (411)
Away
45.0% (509)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Cirelli
Thompson
P1
50.6%
47.7%
P2
49.2%
45.7%
P3
47.2%
40.5%
OT
30.8%
42.9%
Final 5 min
52.8%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 04:28 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:59 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 10:40 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 08:54 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:24 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |