Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs Hertl 57.5% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 62.1%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 88.7%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 78.5%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 74.0%
74.0%
26.0%
Cirelli
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Cirelli
Hertl
Last 5: Cirelli 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Cirelli
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Cirelli
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
58.7% (858)
-8.6%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
55.8% (285)
+13.1%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
62.9% (35)
-26.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +26.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cirelli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Cirelli shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Hertl
Home
53.0% (470)
60.1% (599)
Away
45.0% (509)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Cirelli
Hertl
P1
50.6%
52.4%
P2
49.2%
63.9%
P3
47.2%
58.5%
OT
30.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.8%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 15:22 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 10:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 18:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |