Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Hertl 54.3% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 24-23 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 56.8%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 67.7%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 55.2%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Cirelli
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
24
(47 meetings)
23
24
Cirelli
Hertl
Last 10: Cirelli 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
9
Cirelli
Hertl
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
6
Cirelli
Hertl
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
11
9
Cirelli
Hertl
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (5,739)
53.9% (8,303)
-4.2%
Power Play
56.9% (578)
59.2% (1,995)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (1,209)
46.3% (806)
-2.5%
On even strength, Hertl has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,652).
Cirelli shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Hertl
Home
49.6% (3,838)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
49.1% (3,688)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Cirelli
Hertl
P1
49.9%
53.6%
P2
48.7%
54.2%
P3
49.3%
55.3%
OT
51.1%
46.9%
Final 5 min
50.9%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 15:22 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 10:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 18:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:23 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 17:09 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 05:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 19:25 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 19:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 13:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 07:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 03:27 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |