Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.6% vs 54.2%). Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 90 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kopitar 54.5% vs Pavelski 54.1% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 137-123 in 260 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 61.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 56.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 61.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 59.4%
40.6%
59.4%
Kopitar
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
123
-
137
(260 meetings)
123
137
Kopitar
Pavelski
Last 10: Kopitar 8-2 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
52
56
Kopitar
Pavelski
108 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
35
55
Kopitar
Pavelski
90 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kopitar
36
26
Kopitar
Pavelski
62 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kopitar
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (16,761)
53.6% (8,791)
+1.0%
Power Play
59.2% (3,590)
58.2% (2,122)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (2,946)
50.9% (1,138)
-2.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Kopitar is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (8,155).
Kopitar shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Kopitar
Pavelski
Home
55.3% (11,663)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
53.8% (11,682)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Kopitar
Pavelski
P1
54.5%
53.5%
P2
54.9%
55.2%
P3
53.9%
53.9%
OT
59.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
55.0%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kopitar
72.0%▲
60.0%
54.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 16:31 | Neutral | Anze Kopitar |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 09:01 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 05:50 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:51 | Offensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:47 | Offensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 19:55 | Defensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:35 | Neutral | Anze Kopitar |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:35 | Neutral | Anze Kopitar |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 15:58 | Offensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 18:37 | Neutral | Anze Kopitar |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 13:56 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 05:49 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:25 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 15:33 | Offensive | Anze Kopitar |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 09:39 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 04:45 | Neutral | Anze Kopitar |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 3 | 17:20 | Offensive | Anze Kopitar |