Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Czarnik wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Czarnik 46.0% vs Evans 52.2% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Czarnik 90.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 57.5%
Neutral zone
Czarnik 68.8%
Result
Austin Czarnik favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
Czarnik
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Czarnik
Evans
Last 7: Czarnik 2-5 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
2
Czarnik
Evans
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
3
Czarnik
Evans
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Czarnik
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (605)
53.7% (3,740)
-7.9%
Power Play
42.2% (45)
60.6% (71)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
47.1% (1,228)
-9.6%
On power play, Evans has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Czarnik is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (188).
Czarnik shoots right. Evans is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,301).
Home / Away
Czarnik
Evans
Home
45.1% (335)
53.3% (2,621)
Away
45.6% (331)
51.0% (2,418)
By Period
Czarnik
Evans
P1
47.8%
54.0%
P2
47.4%
50.9%
P3
40.6%
52.0%
OT
0.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
43.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Czarnik
46.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 05:15 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 04:54 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 19:14 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 14:33 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:08 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:00 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 04:55 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |