Auston Matthews vs Connor McMichael
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +16.9% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — McMichael shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs McMichael 43.9% (+16.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 91.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 85.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 89.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 85.8%
85.8%
14.2%
Matthews
McMichael
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Matthews
McMichael
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
McMichael
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
McMichael
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
42.9% (408)
+16.9%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
49.1% (55)
+15.8%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
39.0% (105)
+17.3%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McMichael shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. McMichael is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (376).
Home / Away
Matthews
McMichael
Home
60.0% (520)
43.0% (298)
Away
59.3% (452)
42.6% (270)
By Period
Matthews
McMichael
P1
60.2%
46.6%
P2
58.2%
40.8%
P3
60.4%
41.8%
Final 5 min
57.6%
43.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:14 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 01:14 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |