Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Larkin 52.2% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 18-18 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 60.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 60.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 61.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Matthews
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
18
(36 meetings)
18
18
Matthews
Larkin
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
8
4
Matthews
Larkin
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
5
Matthews
Larkin
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
9
Matthews
Larkin
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
51.1% (915)
+8.7%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
59.4% (261)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
48.2% (168)
+8.1%
On even strength, Matthews has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Matthews
Larkin
Home
60.0% (520)
51.7% (686)
Away
59.3% (452)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Matthews
Larkin
P1
60.2%
52.5%
P2
58.2%
52.7%
P3
60.4%
51.4%
OT
70.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
57.6%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 19:09 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 12:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 08:13 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 28, 2025 | OT | 01:02 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 28, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 09:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:02 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 02:55 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:16 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:23 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 11:56 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 11:34 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 06:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 06:21 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 05:18 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |