Auston Matthews vs Dylan Larkin

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Auston Matthews holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 55 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Matthews 53.9% vs Larkin 52.7% (+1.2%)
H2H factor Matthews leads 74-62 in 136 meetings
Offensive zone Matthews 61.7%
Defensive zone Matthews 53.5%
Neutral zone Matthews 60.2%
Result Auston Matthews favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Matthews Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
74 - 62 (136 meetings)
74
62
Matthews Larkin
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Larkin

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
24
14
Matthews Larkin
38 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
17
26
Matthews Larkin
43 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
33
22
Matthews Larkin
55 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Matthews
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
51.6% (9,056)
+2.4%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
58.6% (2,140)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
50.2% (1,124)
-0.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +3.1% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Home / Away
Matthews
Larkin
Home
56.3% (5,065)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
Matthews
Larkin
P1
55.5%
52.7%
P2
53.3%
53.1%
P3
52.8%
52.0%
OT
56.6%
58.4%
Final 5 min
54.1%
53.2%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%
64.0%
53.9%
Larkin
48.0%
50.5%
52.7%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Jan 21, 2026 2 19:09 Defensive Auston Matthews
Jan 21, 2026 2 12:00 Offensive Auston Matthews
Jan 21, 2026 2 08:13 Offensive Auston Matthews
Dec 28, 2025 OT 01:02 Offensive Auston Matthews
Dec 28, 2025 OT 00:00 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Dec 28, 2025 3 09:42 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Dec 28, 2025 3 03:02 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Dec 28, 2025 3 02:55 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Dec 28, 2025 3 00:00 Neutral Auston Matthews
Dec 28, 2025 2 15:32 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Dec 28, 2025 2 00:16 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Dec 28, 2025 2 00:00 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Dec 28, 2025 1 19:23 Offensive Auston Matthews
Dec 28, 2025 1 11:56 Offensive Auston Matthews
Dec 28, 2025 1 11:34 Defensive Auston Matthews
Dec 28, 2025 1 06:29 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Dec 28, 2025 1 06:21 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Dec 28, 2025 1 00:00 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Oct 13, 2025 3 19:03 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Oct 13, 2025 3 05:18 Offensive Auston Matthews