Auston Matthews vs Kirill Marchenko
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Marchenko shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Marchenko 50.0% (+9.7%)
Offensive zone
Marchenko 61.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 61.0%
Neutral zone
Marchenko 56.9%
Result
Kirill Marchenko favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Matthews
Marchenko
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Marchenko
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
50.0% (8)
+9.8%
On even strength, Matthews has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marchenko shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Marchenko is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (7).
Home / Away
Matthews
Marchenko
Home
60.0% (520)
50.0% (6)
Away
59.3% (452)
50.0% (2)
By Period
Matthews
Marchenko
P1
60.2%
50.0%
P2
58.2%
33.3%
P3
60.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
0.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Marchenko
36.0%▬
36.1%
50.0%