Auston Matthews vs Kirill Marchenko
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +17.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Marchenko shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Marchenko 41.8% (+17.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 78.1%
Defensive zone
Matthews 90.3%
Neutral zone
Matthews 88.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 85.3%
85.3%
14.7%
Matthews
Marchenko
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Matthews
Marchenko
Last 6: Matthews 4-2 Marchenko
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marchenko
0
2
Matthews
Marchenko
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Marchenko
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Marchenko
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Marchenko
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
36.2% (127)
+17.8%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
33.3% (15)
+22.2%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
50.0% (2)
-0.2%
On power play, Matthews has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marchenko shoots right. Matthews is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,705).
Matthews shoots left. Marchenko is 38.5% vs left-shot opponents (96).
Home / Away
Matthews
Marchenko
Home
56.3% (5,065)
42.7% (75)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
29.0% (69)
By Period
Matthews
Marchenko
P1
55.5%
39.7%
P2
53.3%
26.1%
P3
52.8%
41.4%
OT
56.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
26.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Marchenko
36.0%▬
36.1%
36.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 06:44 | Offensive | Kirill Marchenko |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:58 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 01:35 | Offensive | Kirill Marchenko |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 08:16 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |