Auston Matthews vs Mavrik Bourque
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +14.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Bourque 46.5% (+14.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 90.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 89.3%
Neutral zone
Matthews 90.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 89.8%
89.8%
10.2%
Matthews
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Matthews
Bourque
Last 5: Matthews 4-1 Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Bourque
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Bourque
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
46.8% (186)
+13.0%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
23.5% (17)
+41.4%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
42.9% (7)
+13.4%
On power play, Matthews has a +41.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Bourque is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (152).
Home / Away
Matthews
Bourque
Home
60.0% (520)
41.5% (106)
Away
59.3% (452)
48.1% (104)
By Period
Matthews
Bourque
P1
60.2%
40.6%
P2
58.2%
39.0%
P3
60.4%
51.7%
Final 5 min
57.6%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
44.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 12:10 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 01:10 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 05:41 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 10:24 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |