Auston Matthews vs Mavrik Bourque
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Bourque 46.2% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 93.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 65.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 82.8%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
Matthews
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Matthews
Bourque
Last 9: Matthews 6-3 Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Bourque
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
2
Matthews
Bourque
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Bourque
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
46.6% (513)
+7.4%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
26.1% (23)
+29.4%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
42.9% (28)
+6.9%
On power play, Matthews has a +29.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Matthews is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,705).
Matthews shoots left. Bourque is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (425).
Home / Away
Matthews
Bourque
Home
56.3% (5,065)
47.1% (263)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
44.2% (301)
By Period
Matthews
Bourque
P1
55.5%
42.7%
P2
53.3%
42.8%
P3
52.8%
50.2%
OT
56.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
45.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 12:10 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 01:10 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 05:41 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 10:24 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 15:27 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 09:50 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 09:43 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 3 | 09:08 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |