Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Bjugstad 49.5% (+10.3%)
Offensive zone
Matthews 63.3%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 58.5%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 57.0%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Matthews
Bjugstad
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
49.7% (292)
+10.1%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
50.0% (6)
+14.9%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
47.2% (36)
+9.1%
On power play, Matthews has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
Matthews
Bjugstad
Home
60.0% (520)
48.7% (193)
Away
59.3% (452)
50.4% (141)
By Period
Matthews
Bjugstad
P1
60.2%
41.5%
P2
58.2%
57.3%
P3
60.4%
50.0%
OT
70.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.6%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%