Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Cates 45.8% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 50.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 56.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 55.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Matthews
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Matthews
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Matthews
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
44.3% (271)
+9.1%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
77.8% (18)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
31.7% (41)
+10.2%
On power play, Cates has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Cates is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Matthews
Cates
Home
56.5% (703)
52.0% (148)
Away
50.0% (616)
38.5% (182)
By Period
Matthews
Cates
P1
52.1%
42.7%
P2
54.0%
42.9%
P3
54.0%
48.5%
Final 5 min
54.6%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
64.0%▲
60.5%
53.4%
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:17 | Offensive | Noah Cates |