Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.2% vs 56.6%). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Stastny 55.4% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 55.1%
Defensive zone
Stastny 52.7%
Neutral zone
Stastny 55.5%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Matthews
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Matthews
Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
Matthews
Stastny
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
59.2% (370)
-2.9%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
40.9% (44)
+16.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
51.7% (58)
-1.7%
On power play, Matthews has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Stastny is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Matthews
Stastny
Home
60.7% (572)
57.7% (215)
Away
52.4% (657)
55.6% (257)
By Period
Matthews
Stastny
P1
60.3%
57.7%
P2
55.6%
54.2%
P3
53.3%
57.7%
OT
45.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
64.0%▲
60.5%
56.2%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 16:35 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |