Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pinto shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Pinto 50.4% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 24-13 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 95.6%
Defensive zone
Matthews 70.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 86.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 84.5%
84.5%
15.5%
Matthews
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
13
(37 meetings)
24
13
Matthews
Pinto
Last 10: Matthews 7-3 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
10
4
Matthews
Pinto
14 total
Defensive Zone
Even
6
6
Matthews
Pinto
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
8
3
Matthews
Pinto
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
50.7% (2,752)
+3.3%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
54.4% (90)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
45.6% (239)
+4.2%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. Matthews is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,705).
Matthews shoots left. Pinto is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,216).
Home / Away
Matthews
Pinto
Home
56.3% (5,065)
51.1% (1,510)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
49.6% (1,571)
By Period
Matthews
Pinto
P1
55.5%
48.4%
P2
53.3%
51.9%
P3
52.8%
50.9%
OT
56.6%
46.7%
Final 5 min
54.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Pinto
54.0%▲
52.5%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 13:08 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 01:14 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 16:31 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 18:45 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:27 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:32 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 15:00 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:57 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 01:36 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:13 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:21 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:10 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 11:19 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |