Auston Matthews vs Steven Stamkos
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Stamkos 55.4% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 75.7%
Defensive zone
Matthews 52.7%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 60.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 68.6%
31.4%
68.6%
Matthews
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Matthews
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Matthews
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Matthews
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
57.1% (368)
+2.7%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
55.2% (96)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
50.0% (10)
+6.3%
On power play, Matthews has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Matthews
Stamkos
Home
60.0% (520)
53.9% (230)
Away
59.3% (452)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Matthews
Stamkos
P1
60.2%
56.7%
P2
58.2%
54.1%
P3
60.4%
59.2%
OT
70.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
57.6%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 17:02 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:47 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 12:33 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |