Auston Matthews vs Steven Stamkos
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 24 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Stamkos 51.1% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 40-27 in 67 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 66.4%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 65.7%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 63.7%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 65.3%
34.7%
65.3%
Matthews
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
40
(67 meetings)
27
40
Matthews
Stamkos
Last 10: Matthews 2-8 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
11
11
Matthews
Stamkos
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
6
18
Matthews
Stamkos
24 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
10
11
Matthews
Stamkos
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
50.5% (9,825)
+3.5%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
55.2% (1,729)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
49.6% (827)
+0.2%
On even strength, Matthews has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Matthews is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,705).
Matthews shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Matthews
Stamkos
Home
56.3% (5,065)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Matthews
Stamkos
P1
55.5%
49.2%
P2
53.3%
52.7%
P3
52.8%
50.9%
OT
56.6%
54.3%
Final 5 min
54.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 17:02 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:47 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 12:33 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 19:23 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 2 | 11:56 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 2 | 02:00 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 1 | 17:32 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 1 | 06:08 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 14:46 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 3 | 15:41 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 07:18 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 12:51 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 10:25 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 05:25 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |