Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Nosek 48.5% (+12.3%)
Offensive zone
Matthews 53.1%
Defensive zone
Nosek 51.9%
Neutral zone
Nosek 54.7%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Matthews
Nosek
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
52.0% (102)
+7.8%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
100.0% (2)
-35.1%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
29.0% (31)
+27.3%
On power play, Nosek has a +35.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Nosek is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (79).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nosek
Home
60.0% (520)
52.0% (50)
Away
59.3% (452)
44.7% (85)
By Period
Matthews
Nosek
P1
60.2%
45.0%
P2
58.2%
42.0%
P3
60.4%
55.6%
Final 5 min
57.6%
43.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
47.4%