Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 53.7%). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Nosek 53.6% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 76.5%
Defensive zone
Nosek 63.9%
Neutral zone
Matthews 57.2%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Matthews
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Matthews
Nosek
Last 10: Matthews 4-6 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Nosek
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Matthews
Nosek
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
54.9% (2,710)
-0.9%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
45.8% (48)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
47.2% (428)
+2.6%
On power play, Matthews has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Nosek is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,959).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nosek
Home
56.3% (5,065)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Matthews
Nosek
P1
55.5%
52.2%
P2
53.3%
54.1%
P3
52.8%
54.7%
OT
56.6%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 04:12 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 07:49 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 03:12 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 10:38 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 13:40 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 07:08 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 18:57 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 12:38 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 18:19 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 05:50 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 08:37 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 1, 2017 | 2 | 10:03 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |