Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs Coyle 50.5% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 62.5%
Defensive zone
Coyle 73.0%
Neutral zone
Coyle 54.1%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 73.0%
27.0%
73.0%
Hayton
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Hayton
Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
3
Hayton
Coyle
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
52.3% (853)
+0.1%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
44.4% (63)
+12.4%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
44.5% (191)
-7.7%
On power play, Hayton has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Hayton is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Hayton shoots left. Coyle is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Hayton
Coyle
Home
56.8% (433)
49.0% (567)
Away
47.4% (344)
52.0% (540)
By Period
Hayton
Coyle
P1
52.8%
49.5%
P2
50.3%
49.4%
P3
55.4%
52.6%
OT
25.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
59.5%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 18:53 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 14:53 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |