Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Hayton wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs McDavid 48.1% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 53.0%
Defensive zone
Hayton 67.7%
Neutral zone
Hayton 61.0%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Hayton
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Hayton
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
McDavid
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
47.7% (686)
+4.7%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
49.3% (75)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
48.9% (45)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Hayton is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Hayton shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
Hayton
McDavid
Home
56.8% (433)
50.0% (412)
Away
47.4% (344)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Hayton
McDavid
P1
52.8%
48.0%
P2
50.3%
48.5%
P3
55.4%
47.1%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 10:29 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:25 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |