Barrett Hayton vs Connor McDavid
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on neutral-zone draws (84% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.1% vs McDavid 47.8% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Hayton leads 25-12 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayton 56.2%
Defensive zone
Hayton 77.0%
Neutral zone
Hayton 75.7%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 70.2%
70.2%
29.8%
Hayton
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
12
(37 meetings)
25
12
Hayton
McDavid
Last 10: Hayton 5-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
8
Hayton
McDavid
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
6
1
Hayton
McDavid
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
16
3
Hayton
McDavid
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (3,480)
47.7% (8,394)
+3.1%
Power Play
56.7% (594)
52.1% (374)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (374)
43.8% (281)
+1.4%
On power play, Hayton has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Hayton is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,800).
Hayton shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
Home / Away
Hayton
McDavid
Home
52.8% (2,269)
49.3% (4,582)
Away
49.4% (2,179)
46.2% (4,467)
By Period
Hayton
McDavid
P1
52.0%
46.5%
P2
51.4%
48.7%
P3
49.9%
48.3%
OT
58.1%
42.2%
Final 5 min
51.6%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.1%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 10:29 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:25 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 1 | 16:56 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 1 | 05:45 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 04:53 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 00:29 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 06:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 02:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 03:42 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:17 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 04:28 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:17 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:07 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 1 | 11:24 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |