Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 52.4%). Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayton wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs Larkin 52.2% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 51.4%
Defensive zone
Hayton 50.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.3%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Hayton
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Hayton
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Hayton
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
51.1% (915)
+1.3%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
59.4% (261)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
48.2% (168)
-11.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Hayton is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Hayton shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Hayton
Larkin
Home
56.8% (433)
51.7% (686)
Away
47.4% (344)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Hayton
Larkin
P1
52.8%
52.5%
P2
50.3%
52.7%
P3
55.4%
51.4%
OT
25.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
59.5%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 16:26 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 07:08 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 11:40 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |