Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.1% vs Larkin 52.7% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 15-12 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 50.1%
Defensive zone
Hayton 56.4%
Neutral zone
Hayton 57.3%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Hayton
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
15
(27 meetings)
12
15
Hayton
Larkin
Last 10: Hayton 4-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
6
Hayton
Larkin
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
6
5
Hayton
Larkin
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Hayton
Larkin
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (3,480)
51.6% (9,056)
-0.8%
Power Play
56.7% (594)
58.6% (2,140)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (374)
50.2% (1,124)
-5.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Hayton is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,800).
Hayton shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Home / Away
Hayton
Larkin
Home
52.8% (2,269)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
49.4% (2,179)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
Hayton
Larkin
P1
52.0%
52.7%
P2
51.4%
53.1%
P3
49.9%
52.0%
OT
58.1%
58.4%
Final 5 min
51.6%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.1%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 16:26 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 07:08 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 11:40 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 04:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:51 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 05:59 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 15:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 18:23 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 15:31 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 16:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 16:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 16:01 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 15:44 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 15:35 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |