Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs Kapanen 47.1% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 65.8%
Defensive zone
Kapanen 72.3%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 66.0%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
Hayton
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Hayton
Kapanen
Last 5: Hayton 1-4 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
0
2
Hayton
Kapanen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
0
1
Hayton
Kapanen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Kapanen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
46.5% (527)
+5.9%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
54.8% (42)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
39.5% (38)
-2.7%
On even strength, Hayton has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Hayton is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Hayton shoots left. Kapanen is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Home / Away
Hayton
Kapanen
Home
56.8% (433)
47.0% (315)
Away
47.4% (344)
46.2% (292)
By Period
Hayton
Kapanen
P1
52.8%
41.6%
P2
50.3%
50.7%
P3
55.4%
47.6%
OT
25.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Kapanen
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:23 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:40 | Defensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:27 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |