Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Hayton wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 78.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 72.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 74.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 73.3%
26.7%
73.3%
Hayton
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Hayton
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
55.7% (856)
-3.3%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
57.5% (233)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
50.0% (144)
-13.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hayton is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Hayton shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Hayton
O'Reilly
Home
56.8% (433)
55.5% (616)
Away
47.4% (344)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Hayton
O'Reilly
P1
52.8%
58.1%
P2
50.3%
54.9%
P3
55.4%
53.9%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 03:41 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |