Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.1% vs Lafferty 47.5% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 74.2%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 55.1%
Neutral zone
Hayton 60.3%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Hayton
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Hayton
Lafferty
Last 9: Hayton 5-4 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Lafferty
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
4
Hayton
Lafferty
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
3
0
Hayton
Lafferty
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (3,480)
47.9% (1,417)
+2.9%
Power Play
56.7% (594)
45.7% (46)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (374)
43.5% (184)
+1.7%
On power play, Hayton has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Hayton is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,648).
Hayton shoots left. Lafferty is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
Hayton
Lafferty
Home
52.8% (2,269)
47.3% (833)
Away
49.4% (2,179)
47.4% (814)
By Period
Hayton
Lafferty
P1
52.0%
49.4%
P2
51.4%
43.1%
P3
49.9%
49.6%
OT
58.1%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.6%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.1%
Lafferty
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 09:17 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 03:32 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 18:44 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 10, 2023 | 3 | 16:06 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 10, 2023 | 1 | 14:03 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 10, 2023 | 1 | 11:59 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 05:45 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 03:07 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 3 | 09:42 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |