Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Hayton wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs Gourde 46.0% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 91.4%
Defensive zone
Hayton 65.1%
Neutral zone
Hayton 79.0%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 71.8%
71.8%
28.2%
Hayton
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Hayton
Gourde
Last 8: Hayton 7-1 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
4
1
Hayton
Gourde
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
47.2% (687)
+5.2%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
45.0% (20)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
33.0% (88)
+3.8%
On power play, Hayton has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Hayton is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Hayton shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Hayton
Gourde
Home
56.8% (433)
44.4% (356)
Away
47.4% (344)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Hayton
Gourde
P1
52.8%
42.2%
P2
50.3%
50.0%
P3
55.4%
44.5%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 04:45 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 15:01 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 11:26 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:25 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 03:22 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:16 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |