Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Coleman on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Coleman wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coleman 43.3% vs Nelson 48.3% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Coleman leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 89.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 68.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 75.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 77.8%
22.2%
77.8%
Coleman
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
7
(17 meetings)
10
7
Coleman
Nelson
Last 10: Coleman 6-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
4
Coleman
Nelson
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coleman
5
1
Coleman
Nelson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coleman
3
2
Coleman
Nelson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coleman
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (1,061)
47.9% (9,744)
-2.7%
Power Play
34.1% (41)
54.7% (1,149)
-20.6%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (321)
43.8% (790)
-8.0%
On power play, Nelson has a +20.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Coleman is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (890).
Coleman shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Home / Away
Coleman
Nelson
Home
44.4% (664)
50.1% (5,878)
Away
41.4% (759)
46.5% (5,806)
By Period
Coleman
Nelson
P1
42.3%
48.7%
P2
44.6%
48.6%
P3
41.7%
47.7%
OT
0.0%
45.6%
Final 5 min
42.3%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coleman
30.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 04:52 | Offensive | Blake Coleman |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 14:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 3 | 02:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 2 | 06:45 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Jan 17, 2019 | 1 | 13:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 08:23 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 01:13 | Neutral | Blake Coleman |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 16:25 | Neutral | Blake Coleman |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 3 | 11:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 2 | 13:55 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 2 | 10:04 | Offensive | Blake Coleman |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 3 | 16:46 | Neutral | Blake Coleman |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 3 | 11:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 3 | 05:33 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 2 | 16:12 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 2 | 10:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |