Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Coleman on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Coleman wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coleman 43.3% vs Larkin 52.7% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Coleman leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 91.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 64.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 75.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 72.8%
27.2%
72.8%
Coleman
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Coleman
Larkin
Last 10: Coleman 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Coleman
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coleman
6
3
Coleman
Larkin
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coleman
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (1,061)
51.6% (9,056)
-6.4%
Power Play
34.1% (41)
58.6% (2,140)
-24.5%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (321)
50.2% (1,124)
-14.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +24.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Coleman is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (890).
Coleman shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Home / Away
Coleman
Larkin
Home
44.4% (664)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
41.4% (759)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
Coleman
Larkin
P1
42.3%
52.7%
P2
44.6%
53.1%
P3
41.7%
52.0%
OT
0.0%
58.4%
Final 5 min
42.3%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coleman
30.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 12:00 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 08:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 2 | 19:29 | Offensive | Blake Coleman |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 08:01 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 3 | 03:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 1 | 07:20 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Jan 22, 2018 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 2 | 14:31 | Offensive | Blake Coleman |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 2 | 07:21 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 2 | 02:24 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 1 | 13:53 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |