Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Coleman wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coleman 43.3% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-13.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coleman 76.2%
Defensive zone
Coleman 81.9%
Neutral zone
Coleman 82.6%
Result
Blake Coleman favored at 79.1%
79.1%
20.9%
Coleman
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Coleman
O'Reilly
Last 6: Coleman 1-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Coleman
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Coleman
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coleman
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (1,061)
56.2% (15,290)
-11.0%
Power Play
34.1% (41)
58.7% (3,457)
-24.6%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (321)
51.4% (2,826)
-15.6%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Coleman is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (890).
Coleman shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Coleman
O'Reilly
Home
44.4% (664)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
41.4% (759)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Coleman
O'Reilly
P1
42.3%
55.6%
P2
44.6%
57.0%
P3
41.7%
55.0%
OT
0.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
42.3%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coleman
30.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 03:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 3 | 13:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 3 | 10:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 04:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2017 | 3 | 13:01 | Defensive | Blake Coleman |
| Oct 9, 2017 | 2 | 16:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |