Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 51.8% vs O'Reilly 54.7% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 77.7%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 81.8%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 60.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.6%
41.4%
58.6%
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Lizotte
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lizotte
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (279)
54.6% (669)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
46.1% (102)
56.3% (87)
-10.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lizotte is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (244).
Lizotte shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Home
45.1% (182)
56.4% (486)
Away
58.8% (199)
54.0% (441)
By Period
Lizotte
O'Reilly
P1
51.9%
55.3%
P2
50.0%
53.4%
P3
54.3%
56.9%
OT
100.0%
55.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
60.0%▲
55.0%
52.2%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |