Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.0% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 75.3%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 86.4%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 64.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Lizotte
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lizotte
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (342)
55.7% (856)
-2.8%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
57.5% (233)
-32.5%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (130)
50.0% (144)
-6.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +32.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lizotte is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Lizotte shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Lizotte
O'Reilly
Home
44.2% (242)
55.5% (616)
Away
56.0% (234)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Lizotte
O'Reilly
P1
49.6%
58.1%
P2
46.9%
54.9%
P3
52.6%
53.9%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |