Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Groulx on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Groulx wins 41.4% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Groulx 44.1% vs McDavid 47.8% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 94.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 68.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 72.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 71.2%
28.8%
71.2%
Groulx
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Groulx
McDavid
Last 5: Groulx 4-1 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Groulx
McDavid
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Groulx
3
0
Groulx
McDavid
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Groulx
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (393)
47.7% (8,394)
-2.9%
Power Play
44.4% (9)
52.1% (374)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
35.1% (94)
43.8% (281)
-8.7%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Groulx is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Groulx shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
Home / Away
Groulx
McDavid
Home
50.0% (244)
49.3% (4,582)
Away
36.1% (252)
46.2% (4,467)
By Period
Groulx
McDavid
P1
45.1%
46.5%
P2
43.9%
48.7%
P3
40.4%
48.3%
OT
33.3%
42.2%
Final 5 min
42.9%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Groulx
24.0%▼
37.5%
42.9%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 05:43 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 13:48 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 09:36 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Groulx |
| Feb 9, 2024 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Bo Groulx |