Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Horvat wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 56.1% vs Nelson 50.8% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Horvat 89.0%
Defensive zone
Horvat 63.3%
Neutral zone
Horvat 79.0%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
Horvat
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Horvat
Nelson
Last 10: Horvat 7-3 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
5
0
Horvat
Nelson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Horvat
Nelson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Horvat
Nelson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (731)
50.9% (928)
+4.8%
Power Play
63.4% (243)
59.8% (179)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (107)
43.4% (205)
+5.2%
On penalty kill, Horvat has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Horvat is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (633).
Horvat shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
Horvat
Nelson
Home
59.4% (537)
52.9% (654)
Away
54.0% (544)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Horvat
Nelson
P1
59.9%
48.4%
P2
54.5%
54.3%
P3
56.1%
50.5%
OT
55.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
59.4%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
56.7%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 12:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:34 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 08:14 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:17 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:05 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:00 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |