Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 30 meetings). Horvat wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Nelson 48.3% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 50-37 in 87 meetings
Offensive zone
Horvat 85.6%
Defensive zone
Horvat 88.5%
Neutral zone
Horvat 84.0%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 86.1%
86.1%
13.9%
Horvat
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
50
-
37
(87 meetings)
50
37
Horvat
Nelson
Last 10: Horvat 7-3 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
14
10
Horvat
Nelson
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
18
15
Horvat
Nelson
33 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
18
12
Horvat
Nelson
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,655)
47.9% (9,744)
+6.0%
Power Play
61.1% (2,712)
54.7% (1,149)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (1,500)
43.8% (790)
+3.4%
On power play, Horvat has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Horvat is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (10,747).
Horvat shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Home / Away
Horvat
Nelson
Home
56.1% (8,423)
50.1% (5,878)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
46.5% (5,806)
By Period
Horvat
Nelson
P1
54.1%
48.7%
P2
54.5%
48.6%
P3
55.0%
47.7%
OT
49.6%
45.6%
Final 5 min
55.2%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
54.5%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 12:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:34 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 08:14 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:17 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:05 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:00 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 14:03 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 08:32 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 16:28 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 11:14 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 08:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 18:08 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 14:36 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |