Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.7% vs 57.3%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Horvat wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 56.1% vs Tavares 56.8% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 58.3%
Defensive zone
Horvat 52.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 63.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Horvat
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Horvat
Tavares
Last 10: Horvat 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
3
Horvat
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
2
1
Horvat
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Horvat
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (731)
57.7% (975)
-2.0%
Power Play
63.4% (243)
56.0% (250)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (107)
52.2% (23)
-3.6%
On power play, Horvat has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Horvat is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (633).
Horvat shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
Horvat
Tavares
Home
59.4% (537)
57.4% (636)
Away
54.0% (544)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Horvat
Tavares
P1
59.9%
57.5%
P2
54.5%
56.9%
P3
56.1%
57.5%
OT
55.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
59.4%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
56.7%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 08:44 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 05:24 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 14:57 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:53 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 07:25 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 09:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 09:43 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:36 | Neutral | John Tavares |