Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.4%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 75 meetings). Horvat wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Tavares 54.4% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 116-88 in 204 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 66.6%
Defensive zone
Horvat 62.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Horvat
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
88
-
116
(204 meetings)
88
116
Horvat
Tavares
Last 10: Horvat 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
30
45
Horvat
Tavares
75 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
30
36
Horvat
Tavares
66 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
28
35
Horvat
Tavares
63 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,655)
54.0% (16,169)
-0.1%
Power Play
61.1% (2,712)
56.4% (4,298)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (1,500)
50.5% (624)
-3.3%
On power play, Horvat has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Horvat is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (10,747).
Horvat shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Home / Away
Horvat
Tavares
Home
56.1% (8,423)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
52.7% (10,595)
By Period
Horvat
Tavares
P1
54.1%
55.0%
P2
54.5%
54.1%
P3
55.0%
54.0%
OT
49.6%
55.9%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
54.5%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 08:44 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 05:24 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 14:57 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:53 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 07:25 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 09:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 09:43 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:36 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 13:59 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 02:16 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 18:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 05:02 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 05:43 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 03:25 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 03:08 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |