Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 42 meetings). Horvat wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Toews 57.9% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 76-73 in 149 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 54.2%
Defensive zone
Horvat 61.6%
Neutral zone
Horvat 52.0%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Horvat
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
73
-
76
(149 meetings)
73
76
Horvat
Toews
Last 10: Horvat 3-7 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
31
40
Horvat
Toews
71 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
27
15
Horvat
Toews
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
15
21
Horvat
Toews
36 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,637)
57.2% (13,079)
-3.3%
Power Play
61.1% (2,711)
63.3% (3,254)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (1,497)
53.6% (1,810)
-6.4%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Horvat is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (10,730).
Horvat shoots left. Toews is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,675).
Home / Away
Horvat
Toews
Home
56.1% (8,401)
59.7% (9,212)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
56.1% (8,962)
By Period
Horvat
Toews
P1
54.1%
58.6%
P2
54.4%
57.9%
P3
55.0%
57.3%
OT
49.6%
58.9%
Final 5 min
55.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
66.0%▲
56.5%
54.5%
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:38 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 05:44 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 18:27 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 17:05 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 16:43 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:17 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 3 | 19:58 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 3 | 18:42 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 3 | 17:42 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 3 | 04:05 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 2 | 11:35 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 2 | 04:41 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 1 | 02:01 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 07:51 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |