Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 42 meetings). Horvat wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Toews 57.8% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 76-73 in 149 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 53.1%
Defensive zone
Horvat 62.5%
Neutral zone
Horvat 52.9%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Horvat
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
73
-
76
(149 meetings)
73
76
Horvat
Toews
Last 10: Horvat 3-7 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
31
40
Horvat
Toews
71 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
27
15
Horvat
Toews
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
15
21
Horvat
Toews
36 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,417)
57.1% (12,906)
-3.2%
Power Play
61.1% (2,637)
63.2% (3,220)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
47.0% (1,476)
53.6% (1,808)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Horvat is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (10,575).
Horvat shoots left. Toews is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,532).
Home / Away
Horvat
Toews
Home
56.0% (8,277)
59.6% (9,086)
Away
52.9% (8,254)
56.1% (8,879)
By Period
Horvat
Toews
P1
54.1%
58.7%
P2
54.4%
57.7%
P3
54.9%
57.2%
OT
50.4%
58.8%
Final 5 min
55.2%
58.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
42.0%▼
53.5%
54.4%
Toews
52.0%▼
58.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:38 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 05:44 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 18:27 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 17:05 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 16:43 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:17 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 3 | 19:58 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 3 | 18:42 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 3 | 17:42 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 3 | 04:05 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 2 | 11:35 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 2 | 04:41 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 1 | 02:01 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 07:51 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |