Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.2%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 28 meetings). Horvat wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Duchene 54.1% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 41-29 in 70 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 69.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 53.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 65.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 62.7%
37.3%
62.7%
Horvat
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
41
(70 meetings)
29
41
Horvat
Duchene
Last 10: Horvat 3-7 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
8
20
Horvat
Duchene
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
16
10
Horvat
Duchene
26 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
11
Horvat
Duchene
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,655)
53.9% (10,438)
+0.0%
Power Play
61.1% (2,712)
57.0% (1,677)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (1,500)
49.1% (468)
-1.9%
On power play, Horvat has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Horvat is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (10,747).
Horvat shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Home / Away
Horvat
Duchene
Home
56.1% (8,423)
55.6% (6,430)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
52.7% (6,177)
By Period
Horvat
Duchene
P1
54.1%
54.4%
P2
54.5%
54.5%
P3
55.0%
53.4%
OT
49.6%
56.3%
Final 5 min
55.2%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
54.5%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 15:08 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 26, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 3 | 16:25 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 3 | 11:00 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 16:10 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 15:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 15:03 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 12:54 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 03:11 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 2 | 18:26 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 1 | 10:41 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 3 | 00:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 2 | 16:21 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 2 | 11:19 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 1 | 18:42 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |