Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Horvat wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 56.1% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Horvat 70.3%
Defensive zone
Horvat 92.8%
Neutral zone
Horvat 84.5%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 84.0%
84.0%
16.0%
Horvat
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
Horvat
MacKinnon
Last 10: Horvat 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
4
2
Horvat
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
5
4
Horvat
MacKinnon
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
4
0
Horvat
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (731)
49.7% (1,038)
+6.0%
Power Play
63.4% (243)
63.7% (157)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (107)
34.4% (32)
+14.2%
On penalty kill, Horvat has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Horvat is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Horvat shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Horvat
MacKinnon
Home
59.4% (537)
53.1% (618)
Away
54.0% (544)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Horvat
MacKinnon
P1
59.9%
49.3%
P2
54.5%
53.0%
P3
56.1%
50.7%
OT
55.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
59.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
56.7%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:22 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 05:56 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:45 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:02 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:20 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:57 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 09:13 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:49 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:34 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:55 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:39 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |