Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Horvat wins 57.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.9% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Horvat 68.6%
Defensive zone
Horvat 91.6%
Neutral zone
Horvat 83.4%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 82.6%
82.6%
17.4%
Horvat
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
Horvat
MacKinnon
Last 10: Horvat 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
4
2
Horvat
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
5
4
Horvat
MacKinnon
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
4
0
Horvat
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (713)
49.7% (1,029)
+5.7%
Power Play
63.2% (242)
64.3% (154)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (104)
34.4% (32)
+13.7%
On penalty kill, Horvat has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Horvat is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Horvat shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (876).
Home / Away
Horvat
MacKinnon
Home
59.0% (515)
53.1% (606)
Away
54.0% (544)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Horvat
MacKinnon
P1
59.6%
49.4%
P2
53.9%
52.8%
P3
56.2%
50.8%
OT
55.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
59.6%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:22 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 05:56 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:45 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:02 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:20 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:57 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 09:13 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:49 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:34 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:55 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:39 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |