Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Horvat wins 59.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.9% vs MacKinnon 50.7% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Horvat 56.2%
Defensive zone
Horvat 84.7%
Neutral zone
Horvat 75.7%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 73.8%
73.8%
26.2%
Horvat
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
Horvat
MacKinnon
Last 10: Horvat 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
4
2
Horvat
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
5
4
Horvat
MacKinnon
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
4
0
Horvat
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (493)
49.1% (825)
+7.3%
Power Play
63.7% (168)
65.4% (130)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (83)
34.5% (29)
+10.1%
On penalty kill, Horvat has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Horvat is 59.4% vs right-shot opponents (283).
Horvat shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (716).
Home / Away
Horvat
MacKinnon
Home
58.8% (391)
52.6% (489)
Away
54.4% (353)
49.1% (495)
By Period
Horvat
MacKinnon
P1
61.2%
50.3%
P2
53.1%
52.6%
P3
55.1%
49.2%
OT
71.4%
62.5%
Final 5 min
61.5%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
42.0%▼
53.5%
56.7%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:22 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 05:56 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:45 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:02 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:20 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:57 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 09:13 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:49 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:34 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:55 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:39 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |