Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 71 meetings). Horvat wins 56.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Horvat leads 93-58 in 151 meetings
Offensive zone
Horvat 91.2%
Defensive zone
Horvat 96.6%
Neutral zone
Horvat 95.8%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 94.7%
94.7%
5.3%
Horvat
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
93
-
58
(151 meetings)
93
58
Horvat
MacKinnon
Last 10: Horvat 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
20
24
Horvat
MacKinnon
44 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
23
13
Horvat
MacKinnon
36 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horvat
50
21
Horvat
MacKinnon
71 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,655)
46.1% (11,264)
+7.8%
Power Play
61.1% (2,712)
53.2% (1,421)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (1,500)
42.8% (502)
+4.4%
On power play, Horvat has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Horvat is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (6,120).
Horvat shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
Home / Away
Horvat
MacKinnon
Home
56.1% (8,423)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Horvat
MacKinnon
P1
54.1%
47.4%
P2
54.5%
46.6%
P3
55.0%
46.1%
OT
49.6%
48.4%
Final 5 min
55.2%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
68.0%▲
57.5%
54.5%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:22 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 05:56 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:45 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:02 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:20 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:57 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 09:13 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:49 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:34 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:55 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:39 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 04:37 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |